Tuesday, September 08, 2026

Lonnie Bunch Is Retiring - Look at What Is Happening to Black Leadership in Washington


The Smithsonian secretary says Trump did not drive him from office. But his departure raises a larger question about the administration's campaign against DEI, Black leadership and representative government.

by Alvin Blackshear  |  Historian & Researcher  <ablackshear@gmail.com>

On September 8, Lonnie G. Bunch III announced he will retire as secretary of the Smithsonian at the end of 2026, closing out nearly 38 years at the institution. Bunch became secretary in 2019, the first African American and first historian to hold the Smithsonian's highest office. Before that, he built the National Museum of African American History and Culture from almost nothing, guiding it to its 2016 opening on the National Mall.

His retirement lands at a remarkable moment. Since early 2025, the Trump administration has pushed to strip what it calls "improper ideology" from the Smithsonian, challenging exhibits on race, slavery and immigration, pressuring the institution's leadership, and, just days before Bunch's announcement, threatening to withdraw federal-agency support altogether. Bunch insists that pressure isn't why he's leaving. But he also says the moment is one "we're at a time when people are challenging that independence," and he has pledged to keep fighting for the Smithsonian's independence until his last day.

Take him at his word. His departure isn't proof of anything by itself. But it's an occasion to ask a bigger question: what is happening to Black leadership inside the institutions of the federal government?

A pattern, not an anecdote

Start counting names. Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., the second Black chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, fired. Carla Hayden, the first Black person and first woman to serve as Librarian of Congress, fired. Gwynne Wilcox, the first Black woman on the National Labor Relations Board, removed. Alvin Brown, the only Black member of the National Transportation Safety Board, removed. Robert Primus, a Black member of the Surface Transportation Board, removed. Peggy Carr, a 35-year Education Department veteran and Black commissioner of the National Center for Education Statistics, removed. Lisa Cook, the first Black woman to serve as a Federal Reserve governor, targeted for removal, a move now tied up in litigation.

Rachel Maddow and other reporters have compiled versions of this list since the spring, and in one federal complaint, attorneys for a fired official argued that roughly three-quarters of Black officials serving at independent federal agencies had been removed under this administration. How many names does it take before we stop treating each firing as its own isolated story and start asking whether there's a pattern?

DEI as the operational language of the personnel story

The administration's public rationale is that diversity, equity and inclusion programs themselves constitute discrimination, and that dismantling them restores merit-based, race-neutral government. That's the stated case, and it should be reported accurately. But it's worth asking what "DEI" means operationally once that label gets applied to institutions, personnel decisions and historical exhibits alike. The real question isn't whether the acronym is popular or unpopular. It's this: when an administration defines efforts to broaden representation of historically excluded Americans as discrimination, who loses when those efforts disappear?

Beyond the famous names

The prominent firings may end up being less significant than what's happening to ordinary Black federal employees. Black Americans have long been overrepresented in the federal workforce relative to their share of the population, and not by accident: federal jobs offered access to professional careers, stable pay, pensions and advancement at a time when much of the private economy discriminated against them.

Now consider the scale of the current downsizing. According to the Government Accountability Office, the federal workforce across 22 major agencies fell by nearly 256,000 employees (from about 2.27 million to 2.01 million) between December 2024 and January 2026, the product of roughly 378,000 separations against about 127,000 new hires. That reframes the story. It's no longer just "Trump fired Black leaders." It's a question about what's happening to Black participation in the federal government as a whole.

Inside the Pentagon

The military deserves its own look, because the evidence there is distinct. Gen. Brown's removal as Joint Chiefs chairman was followed by other senior Black military departures and a broader anti-DEI restructuring at the Pentagon. Reporting has also described Black and female officers being disproportionately dropped from promotion lists, and a Pentagon purge of DEI-related content that swept up material on the Tuskegee Airmen, Jackie Robinson and other minority military figures, some of it later restored after public criticism. That raises a sharper question than "Is the Pentagon eliminating DEI programs?" It's whether the campaign is reshaping who advances, who leads, and which chapters of American military history the government is willing to commemorate.

An old American question

America has been here before. When Woodrow Wilson took office in 1913, Black Americans had built a real foothold in federal employment. His administration segregated federal workplaces; Black employees were separated, reassigned, demoted and dismissed. The point isn't that Trump is Wilson. The point is that federal employment can be expanded or contracted as an avenue of Black opportunity through administrative power alone, with no new law required.

Representative government, not just a demographic count

Representation isn't only about whether Congress looks like the country. It's also about whether the institutions that exercise government power (the military, the Federal Reserve, regulatory commissions, the federal courts, the civil service, libraries, museums, scientific and education agencies, national cultural institutions) reflect the population they govern. What happens to representative government when the people making decisions inside it increasingly stop resembling the people governed by it? That's a question about legitimacy and institutional access, not just headcounts.

Back to Bunch, and who tells the story

Which brings us back to Bunch, who is more than an opening anecdote. The fight over Smithsonian exhibits dealing with slavery and race isn't separate from the personnel story; it's the other half of it. The administration has accused the institution of presenting an insufficiently celebratory account of the country; Bunch has defended scholarship that presents accomplishments alongside failures. There are two questions running through this moment: who gets to hold positions of federal authority, and who gets to tell America's history once they're there? Bunch, the Smithsonian's first Black secretary and the historian who built its African American history museum, sits at the intersection of both.

What the evidence supports

I don't believe these developments are coincidental, and I don't think "DEI" fully explains what we're witnessing. When Black leaders are repeatedly removed, Black federal workers disproportionately absorb the consequences of downsizing, programs meant to broaden participation get relabeled as discriminatory, Black military advancement is disrupted, and institutions built to tell Black history come under federal pressure, racial motivation has to be considered as a possible explanation for the pattern. That's a different claim than saying any individual official was fired because he or she is Black; it says the cumulative project and its effects are evidence from which that motivation can be debated. The precise extent to which racial animus drove any single decision remains uncertain. That's not the same as saying there's no evidence to examine.

There's a further question worth sitting with: if the administration succeeds in linking Black advancement itself to "DEI," does every Black official become vulnerable to the assumption that they represent diversity rather than merit? That may be one of the most consequential effects of this campaign, and it deserves investigation rather than assumption.

Lonnie Bunch says Donald Trump didn't push him out, and there's no reason to doubt him. But his retirement is a fair moment to look around Washington and take stock. Who occupies the government's senior offices now? Who is leaving the federal workforce? Who advances through the military? Which histories can still be told, and who decides? Every president dismisses officials; that's not the question. The question is whether the federal government is being systematically reshaped in ways that diminish Black representation, Black institutional authority and Black influence over the American story.

Monday, September 07, 2026

The Rule Doesn't Have to Become Law to Change Higher Education


How the threat of federal punishment can dismantle programs for minority students before a court ever decides whether the government has the power to do it.

by Alvin Blackshear  |  Historian & Researcher  <ablackshear@gmail.com>

Here is a fact that should be reassuring: on September 4, 2026, the Treasury Department and the IRS published a proposed regulation, not a final one. Nothing has actually changed. Nothing is yet required.

Now turn that fact upside down. Colleges do not have the luxury of pretending REG-119986-25 doesn't exist. The administration has explicitly warned that private educational institutions maintaining what it regards as racially discriminatory programs could lose their federal tax-exempt status, a penalty severe enough to end most private schools outright. Treasury itself estimates that as many as 18,000 private educational institutions could be affected. The rule does not have to become law to change higher education. The threat may be enough.

What is being proposed

The proposal covers admissions, scholarships and loans, athletics, and other school-supported programs. It would treat any use of race, color, or national or ethnic origin in distributing benefits as disqualifying, even when the purpose is explicitly remedial. Schools could still target assistance using income, geography, first-generation status, individual hardship, and other race-neutral criteria. Crucially, the regulation would apply only to taxable years beginning after May 31, 2027. That gap between now and then is where the real story lives.

Anticipatory compliance

Imagine yourself as a university president, trustee, or general counsel. Do you maintain a scholarship established specifically for Black students and risk an eventual confrontation with the IRS? Or do you quietly rewrite the eligibility requirements now, while no one is forcing you to?

For a risk-averse institution, the rational response is to comply before anyone has required compliance. A Black student scholarship becomes an "economically disadvantaged" scholarship. A minority mentoring program opens to everyone. Targeted recruitment changes. Donors are gently discouraged from establishing race-conscious funds in the first place. No IRS agent has to show up. No exemption has to be revoked. No judge has to rule on anything. The program simply disappears, quietly, as a matter of institutional self-preservation.

How power like this operates

It is a fact that the administration proposes treating race-conscious remedial programs as disqualifying discrimination. Whether that reflects hostile intent is a separate question, one this argument doesn't need to resolve. What matters is how the power functions: government need not command a result directly to produce it. It can identify a category of conduct as risky, attach an extraordinary financial consequence to it, and let institutions, lawyers, and administrators do the rest. American racial policy has often worked this way, through funding conditions, tax treatment, and the threat of losing government benefits, long before any court weighs in. The pressing question isn't only "will this regulation survive review?" It's "what will disappear while we're waiting to find out?"

The strongest counterargument

Supporters can fairly respond that the administration isn't banning help for disadvantaged students. Schools can still aid poor, first-generation, and geographically disadvantaged students; Treasury's own framing insists on this. What's demanded is that aid follow individual disadvantage, not race. That's a coherent principle. But it invites a historical question worth sitting with: can a race-neutral remedy fully repair an inequality that was created through explicitly race-conscious discrimination? Reasonable people disagree, and this piece won't settle it for them.

The question nobody can answer

Congress has noticed. Representatives Lloyd Doggett and Terri Sewell have introduced the PROOF Act, aimed at guaranteeing due process before the IRS can strip an organization's tax-exempt status. It's a meaningful check, but it doesn't touch the underlying rule, and it does nothing to stop an administrator today from asking, "why risk an IRS examination at all? Just change the program now."

Which returns us to the real stakes. Courts may eventually uphold this regulation. They may strike it down. But by then, the more important consequence may have already occurred: scholarships rewritten, programs eliminated, recruitment quietly redirected, donors steered elsewhere. If universities voluntarily dismantle these programs in anticipation of a rule, and courts later strike that rule down, how many of those programs will ever come back?


For further reading:

Federal Register, REG-119986-25, "Racial Nondiscrimination in Private Schools" (Sept. 4, 2026).
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/09/04/2026-18127/racial-nondiscrimination-in-private-schools

U.S. Department of the Treasury, press release on the proposed rule (Sept. 3, 2026).  https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0621/

H.R. 10258, the PROOF Act, introduced Sept. 3, 2026.
https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/10258

Wednesday, September 02, 2026

After Affirmative Action: What the Data Says About Who Really Gets an Edge


by Alvin Blackshear  |  Historian & Researcher  <ablackshear@gmail.com>

A Sad Day, Not a Surprising One

When the Supreme Court struck down race conscious admissions in Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard on June 29, 2023, the reaction from educators and advocates was less shock than grief. As one campus diversity officer put it in the ruling's immediate aftermath, it was "a sad day in America, but not a surprising day." That framing captures something real. Affirmative action's opponents had been building toward this moment for a decade, and those working in higher education had time to brace for it, even if bracing didn't make the outcome easier to absorb.

The Argument That Won't Go Away. Legacy, Donors, and Athletes

The sharpest counterpunch from critics of the ruling is that it eliminated one narrow preference while leaving much larger ones intact. A 2026 study published in Education Finance and Policy by Vanderbilt researchers Brent Evans and Cody Christensen examined seven institutions and one statewide policy that banned legacy admissions preferences, including Amherst College, Johns Hopkins, the University of California system, and the state of Colorado. Their finding complicates the simple version of this argument. Banning legacy preferences alone did not consistently increase student diversity. Some institutions saw real gains, others saw little to no change, in part because many state policies ban legacy preference but leave donor preference fully intact and rarely include enforcement mechanisms. The takeaway is not that legacy and donor preferences are harmless. It's that removing them is not, by itself, a substitute for the access affirmative action provided. Older data still underscores the scale of the underlying preference. A widely cited, but dated, Harvard admissions analysis found that more than 43 percent of white students admitted between 2009 and 2014 were recruited athletes, legacies, on the dean's interest list, or children of faculty and staff, compared with under 16 percent for Black, Asian American, and Hispanic admits.

The Precedent Nobody Should Ignore. What Happened After California Banned Race Conscious Admissions

Critics point to California as a preview of the nationwide ruling's likely effects, and researchers are still tracking the fallout from the newer, national version of that experiment. In a 2026 Brookings research brief, University of Maryland professor Julie Park (whose book Race, Class, and Affirmative Action was published by Harvard Education Press this year and reviewed in the peer-reviewed journal Education Review) documents what she calls a "cascade effect." Underrepresented students turned away from elite institutions are enrolling instead at state flagships, and students previously headed to flagships are being displaced further down the selectivity ladder. Park's analysis found that Black student enrollment fell at a majority of the 29 elite institutions she tracked, with 16 public flagships reporting a net loss of Black students. At the same time, 83 percent of public flagship institutions saw overall underrepresented minority enrollment rise, driven largely by Latino students rather than Black students. This is not a story of straightforward decline. It's a redistribution, and Park's research draws heavily on earlier causal work by Princeton economist Zachary Bleemer showing that students who lose access to more selective institutions tend to have measurably worse graduation rates, grades, and postgraduate earnings than they would have had otherwise. That earlier research, on California's Proposition 209, found the ban deterred more than 1,000 underrepresented minority applicants a year from even applying to the UC system and cut Black and Latino enrollment at UC Berkeley by roughly 40 percent.

Race Neutral Alternatives Aren't Neutral in Effect

The practical question facing universities now is what to do instead. Park's 2026 analysis notes that class based, income based alternatives to race conscious admissions do not reliably produce the same racial diversity gains, even when they succeed at increasing economic diversity. That gap is the empirical heart of the argument that "colorblind" admissions policies are not simply neutral substitutes. They tend to produce smaller and less consistent results.

Where This Leaves the Debate

None of this settles the constitutional question the Court already resolved. But it sharpens the practical one facing universities today. If the preferences that most favor wealthy, disproportionately white applicants remain harder to dislodge than expected, and if the race neutral alternatives on offer are inconsistent at best, the real fight ahead is over legacy and donor admissions reform, income based alternatives, and pipeline investment, not just compliance with the letter of the ruling.

------------------

Notes

Arcidiacono, P., Kinsler, J., & Ransom, T. (2022). "Legacy and Athlete Preferences at Harvard." Journal of Labor Economics, 40(1), 133–156. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/713744

Evans, B. J., & Christensen, C. L. (2026). "The Evolving Landscape of Legacy Preference Bans in Postsecondary Admissions. Evidence and Policy Implications from Case Studies." Education Finance and Policy, 21(3), 564–585. https://doi.org/10.1162/EDFP.a.433

Park, J. J. (2026). Race, Class, and Affirmative Action. College Admissions in a New Era. Harvard Education Press. Reviewed by Yingyuan Sun (2026), Education Review, 33. https://doi.org/10.14507/er.v33.4653